Concerning the current state of the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU.
The negotiations between the parties have taken 2 years so far and the EU has been in control throughout and the clock is fast ticking towards March 2019.
However, the UK is now in a position to take total control over the negotiations provided that we give no ground and exercise steadfast courage. The outcome will save the EU and release the UK to be a free nation again.
Since the formation of the Iron Coal and Steel community in 1951 which was the forerunner of the EU, Germany has dominated European organisations. It largely designed the European institutions, the political structure and the Euro. Germany set up the working arrangements between all the countries in the Eurozone.
Germany also placed its selected nationals into key positions within the European Institutions.
The UK was not invited to join the EU until the majority of the above was in place. Although the UK is the largest market in the world for EU exports the UK has not had the influence that its position deserved. It should be noted that David Cameron was ignored when he tried to persuade the EU to improve their political and commercial legal regulations. Further the EU has failed to engage in serious negotiations to achieve a Brexit deal which would be acceptable to all. The UK must take advantage of the situation in which the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU
Now is the time to take control. But what is the current state of the EU?
The Euro is about to collapse. The collapse is likely to happen within the next 2 – 3 years but more likely within the next 6 months. The collapse could be triggered by any one of the following although Italy is the most likely:- Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland France or Greece (to mention the larger countries). All of them are currently bankrupt or nearly bankrupt, any of them could declare bankruptcy and return to their former currencies. If they did that their countries could become competitive again and they could start to rebuild successful countries.
Italy cannot survive for more than about 3 – 6 months without massive financial support. If the UK were still in the EU then the UK would be required to provide continuing support. Remember that the UK has already provided €150 billion to Italy.
Also remember that Angela Merkel no longer has clear majority and her coalition partners are saying that they will not support additional payments to Italy.
The International monetary fund and other non-European countries will not provide the money for Italy and the EU countries do not have sufficient money to successfully support Italy and the other countries who are in similar difficulties. The EU collectively has very low GDP growth rates compared with the rest of the world.
European and International Trade.
The EU has adopted the French Napoleonic Code to build its legal structure. The code is totally different in concept to the laws of the UK and the majority of laws throughout the world. Under the Napoleonic code no one is allowed to do anything unless it is specifically authorised by law to do so. Complying with the code increases costs which are borne by businesses and consumers.
Under UK laws anyone or any organisation can do anything providing it is not illegal.
The Napoleonic code protects the EU from competition from overseas companies which are unable to or are unwilling to comply with the code.
The EU takes desperately long periods of time to come to trade agreements with other countries or groups of countries due to the Napoleonic code.
As far as the UK is concerned, once it is out of the EU, it will be able to negotiate trade agreements, which can be negotiated quickly, with individual country’s or country groups. The UK wishes to make agreements with countries around the world in order that we can be up to date and share new technology et cetera with those countries. Further those countries wish to make agreements with us due to the UK’s financial, legal and many other professional skills which are available within the UK.
European politics is obviously a very large subject. Currently in many European countries & their electorates are moving away from traditional views. It would appear as though a noticeable number of European countries could leave the EU within 4 – 5 years. Immigration (or invasion) is a key issue. The same countries which are mentioned under Euro above are seeking ways to reduce unemployment rates of about 10% for the last 10 years to an acceptable level and to increase GDP growth rates from about 0% over the same period. Other countries in the group have different issues to be resolved.
Free movement of people
As far as the countries listed in the Euro paragraph above, due to high unemployment many of their work force have left their home countries to seek work elsewhere. This is having a devastating effect on their home countries. Houses have been abandoned and they are deteriorating. The proportion of elderly as a percentage of the population is increasing but their standard of living is declining etc.
For more than 30% of the time that the EU has existed the Court of Auditors has refused to sign the EU’s annual accounts because of the high levels of fraud.
The financial situation within the EU is bad and it is not sustainable.
Since the formation of the Iron Coal and Steel Community in 1951 France and Germany have always planned at each step from the formation of Iron Coal and Steel Community should be a step closer to the formation of United States of Europe. The current aim is to form the United States of Europe in or by 2025. If the UK were to be in the EU at that time, it would be required to step aside from its identity and depart from further independent rights of action, this most probably would be totally unacceptable to the British people.
To avoid that catastrophe, the UK must leave the EU at the end of March 2019
It is obvious that the EU is far from being a healthy group of nations and it is highly unlikely that the UK would accept being a small cog in the formation of the United States of Europe.
It is obvious that the EU is far from being in a healthy group of nations.
I believe that the above confirms that
“Now is the time to take control”
We must give notice that we are going to leave the EU at the end of March 2019.
We could/should accept the EFTA rules as are currently used by Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland.
We would prefer to have the EFTA zero tariffs between the EU and UK, but we would accept alternatively agreed or mutually agreed higher tariff or world trade Tariffs. This would be to the UK’s advantage because the EU exports more to the UK than vice versa.
We would expect to continue the current border controls which are currently in place or to use the EFTA rules
That we would not pay the €38 billion to the EU, which had been offered by the Prime Minister, because the agreement has not been reached.
We would require the EU to return the Target2 contributions which have been made to the ECB which will be over €150 billion
We would require the repayment for all the contributions to the EU high tech projects if the EU requires the UK to leave those projects.
The author has limited the list to the above because it indicates the actions which we should take. As he is not privy to the current negotiations with the EU to be able to make further recommendations.
Are there any specific advantages to be outside the EU?
The financial crisis within the EU is highly likely to trigger a major world recession. Even if it does not trigger the world recession itself, there are many other global financial issues which could, together with the EU situation, start the recession. As one example only, the deteriorating trade relationship between the USA and China could cause or add to the recession.
If we were still in the EU when the recession starts, we would be required to support the EU. This would be in addition to dealing with the financial crisis in the UK, which would be substantially greater than financial crisis which was triggered by the Lehman failure.
Most probably, and with difficulty, the UK could manage the financial crisis in the UK but it is highly unlikely that it could support Europe and survive the UK financial crisis at the same time.
Politicians in the UK must be aware of the EU’s target2 crisis. It is their responsibility to manage the U.K.’s financial situation in the best possible manner. This and this alone is sufficient to cut our ties to the EU at the end of March 2019 and prepare for the world recession which will be substantially more serious than the collapse of Lehman Bros and its global effect.