Introduction.
We have referred to the past as it enables us to forecast the future with greater certainty.
The UK was the World’s leading country from the 16th century when it began to build its empire until the end of the 19th century.
In England, until the beginning of the 1700’s canals were used to transport goods. They dominated transport until the arrival of the steam engines and railways. The canal owners fought long and hard to stop the development of the Railways. But they failed.
Coal was then the main generator of power from the beginning of the industrial revolution until the end of the 1800s. When the time came, the coal miners tried, but failed, to stop oil from providing most of the world’s power requirements.
Now oil as a fuel is now in decline, while renewables are in ascendance. Coronavirus has also changed the world and more changes will come..
The last time that major world changes took place was after the Second World War.
The USA dominated the world from 1945. At that time, Russia threatened the West because it had invaded much of Europe, Germany and Japan had been defeated in the war and Commonwealth countries demanded independence, which the UK could not resist.
In due course, the Russian Empire collapsed and China began its industrial revolution which has enabled it to become the 2nd most powerful country in the word. During this period the USA, the EU and the UK (and many other countries) took advantage of the low cost manufacturing facilities in China and they outsourced much of their manufacturing capacity to them.
Few countries considered the risks they were running by outsourcing the manufacturing of key national products to China, however those risks increased each year.
They knew that China was a Communist country, that it was the world’s second largest economy and that it had a significant hold over many countries with which it traded. They did not take steps to stop China from becoming the largest economy in the world and they ignored China’s refusal to provide human rights to its people. They also knew that there were many other serious issues (such as G5) which had been overlooked.
The coronavirus has now changed the world and its attitude towards China.
Why?
- The world has now realises that President Xi Jinping has changed the way China interacts with the rest of the world. He intends to control the world and is ruthless to any country standing in his way. China’s response to coronavirus, to its international criticism and to the way it has behaved has now been recognised by most countries. They now comprehend the depth of their reliance on China and the power that that gives to China. Many are now realise that it will be in their interests to reverse that situation.
- As an example the world has observed the ruthless retaliation that China imposed upon Australia, when it sided with Hong Kong. Due to Australia’s experience, countries now know that China could do the same to their countries. Consequently, many countries are planning to join with others to stand up against China’s world dominance. Most people in the UK will support the Government decision to pull back from China and will support the changes which will be introduced.
- It is likely that the UK Government will reduce its reliance on vital products such as medical equipment which have been outsourced to China and that commercial companies will also reduce their reliance on a wide range of other Chinese manufactured products.
- The UK and world now realises how China is trying to control key industries such as G5 and Nuclear power stations or buying companies to access their technology.
- We expect that, in future, the west’s major financial centres will restrict China’s access to their facilities.
We believe that the relationship between China and the rest of the world will change, and that it will change the world.
The changes will affect all individuals, small, medium and large businesses, institutions, government organisations and all countries. All should know that the changes are coming. All should do their best to forecast those changes and to plan and adapt to those changes as soon as possible.
Those who succeed are likely to thrive but, those who do not change, are likely to fall by the wayside. Our below forecast applies to all individuals, small, medium and large businesses, institutions, government organisations and all countries.
How do we forecast the future?
We believe that the world will now recognise the threat of climate change and the dangers of pollution in all its forms. We believe that there will be a major move from the oil industry to the renewable industries. We expect that $300 trillion will move from oil based to renewable based interests. Hi technology will prevail.
Most international companies will review management strategies and many will reduce the length of their supply chains and some will out-source manufacturing capacity to new locations.
Sadly, many companies will fail, and unemployment will increase.
But adversity usually creates opportunities. It is our opinion that those who see the new opportunities and exploit them become the leaders of the future.
If your business is in difficulties, act immediately, decide whether it is likely to thrive again. If you think its future is doubtful, you should close down and recover whatever you can. You will learn from your experience, look for opportunities and with your experience you are likely to thrive again. With good luck and a following wind you will regain your confidence and you will re-establish yourself.
In the UK, we will re-establish ourselves as being a sovereign country. There will be many opportunities for individuals or companies, as well as our country, to re-create links to Commonwealth and other sovereign nations and their companies. They are likely to be growing, many will be decoupling, to a smaller or greater extent, from China and many will welcome us as they trust us.
We expect China, the EU and Russia to decline. Most oil-producing countries are also likely to decline unless they make a successful move into the renewable industries and or unless they successfully redeploy their current financial strength.
We expect most countries in the Far East will continue to grow but Singapore and Indonesia will grow substantially. We believe that India will become a dominant country within 20 years and that Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Uganda and Ghana will grow faster than most other lesser developed countries. We also believe that some South American countries could do well, subject to political leadership.
To keep you up to date, we believe that now is an excellent time to launch a new business. We believe that online marketing is and will continue to be a vital business discipline which our clients use. We plan to work in India, Ethiopia and other countries. We intend to provide relocation services to major world companies when they relocate production away from China. We will partner with companies from the UK and from around the world to provide the infrastructure and services that they require.
David Mainwaring FCA
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